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The SABRhood

MLB analysis for fans, journalists, and broadcasters.

Intelligence for the ’hood

See the game before the box score explains it.

The SABRhood combines pitch-level research, daily signals, simulation, history, and journalistic reporting for fans and broadcasters.

Open today’s headlines Explore today’s projections

Built for
FansUnderstand the game beyond the box score.
BroadcastersBuild game-day prep from one research desk.
JournalistsFind the next lead in the Trend Engine.
Headliners

Find headlines from different angles every day.

The engine hand picks new stories to keep things fresh.

Offensive race95.6

Yordan Alvarez

Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez is building one of baseball’s strongest offensive cases

OPS 1.004; race score 97.6.

Run prevention94.0

Jacob Misiorowski

Milwaukee Brewers

Jacob Misiorowski is limiting opponent production at an elite rate

OPS allowed 0.474; race score 95.6.

Team intelligence90.3

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers has a new league-wide reporting lead

Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 1st in run generation and 1st in pitching performance, with a usable bullpen and 5 recent risers.

Milestone85.8

Freddie Freeman

LAD

Freddie Freeman reached 2,500 career hits

Career estimate 2,558.

Open the complete Story Engine
The Trend Engine

The winds have changed, where are these players heading now?

Our engine searches for the players with the most movement against there season averages.

Hitter change profile

Jorge Mateo

Tampa Bay Rays | RHB

58.7
Season PA207OPS0.574Est. wOBA0.251Samplemoderate
Biggest changehard-hit rate -3.87 z

Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 30th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS1st
0.574
Est. wOBA1st
0.251
Hard-hit rate30th
35.9%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Hard-hit rate-3.87 z
Recent 0.0% vs baseline 39.8%
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.9 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 30th percentile. Recent sample: 27 PA; prior sample: 180 PA.
Pitcher change profile

Kyle Harrison

Milwaukee Brewers | LHP

55.5
Season BF494OPS allowed0.769Est. wOBA allowed0.331Samplestrong
Biggest changerun value allowed per PA -3.78 z

Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed20th
0.769
Est. wOBA allowed21st
0.331
Hard-hit rate allowed45th
38.3%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Run value allowed / PA-3.78 z
Recent 0.390 vs baseline -0.005
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 3.8 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 31st percentile. Recent sample: 21 BF; prior sample: 473 BF.
Hitter change profile

Kyle Teel

Chicago White Sox | LHB

55.4
Season PA121OPS0.636Est. wOBA0.288Samplemoderate
Biggest changewalk rate +3.42 z

Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 96th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS12th
0.636
Est. wOBA17th
0.288
Hard-hit rate88th
48.3%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Walk rate+3.42 z
Recent 23.8% vs baseline 7.6%
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 96th percentile. Recent sample: 42 PA; prior sample: 79 PA.
Hitter change profile

Kyle Tucker

Los Angeles Dodgers | LHB

54.2
Season PA602OPS0.725Est. wOBA0.318Samplestrong
Biggest changeOPS +3.31 z

OPS is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 47th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS47th
0.725
Est. wOBA50th
0.318
Hard-hit rate37th
37.1%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
OPS+3.31 z
Recent 1.435 vs baseline 0.670
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: OPS is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.3 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 47th percentile. Recent sample: 45 PA; prior sample: 557 PA.
Open the full Player Change Engine
Career Path Engine

Where have careers like this gone next?

Games, age, offensive shape, and historical survival turn today’s player line into a range of career paths.

CIN · 121 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Sal Stewart

At 121 career games, Sal Stewart’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,503 more games. The closest current career shape is David Wright.

Legacy ProjectionNo Hall yet

The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.

Closest pathDavid WrightProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.274 / .340 / .468Expected HR pace20.8 per 600 PA
2027 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
2028 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
2029 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
ARI · 582 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Corbin Carroll

At 582 career games, Corbin Carroll’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,400 more games. The closest current career shape is Barry Bonds.

Legacy ProjectionHall bound?

This career shape frequently appears beside eventual Hall of Famers.

Closest pathBarry BondsProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.274 / .351 / .476Expected HR pace23.0 per 600 PA
2027 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
2028 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
2029 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
WSN · 194 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Daylen Lile

At 194 career games, Daylen Lile’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,534 more games. The closest current career shape is Brett Lawrie.

Legacy ProjectionNo Hall yet

The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.

Closest pathBrett LawrieProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.278 / .332 / .449Expected HR pace18.2 per 600 PA
2027 estimate20 HR657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
2028 estimate20 HR657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
2029 estimate19 HR641 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
Open the Career Path Engine
Simulation center preview

Probabilities with the uncertainty left in

The future daily board will report a lean, a score range, and the factors behind the number — never a naked percentage.

Game 1 · scheduled slateNarrow lean
AwayTampa Bay Rays44.6%
HomeNew York Yankees55.4%
Mean score4.1 – 4.5Model total8.5One-run game36.9%
New York Yankees 55.4%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Game 2 · scheduled slateClear lean
AwayToronto Blue Jays33.1%
HomeBaltimore Orioles66.9%
Mean score4.0 – 5.3Model total9.2One-run game32.6%
Baltimore Orioles 66.9%20,000 draws · conditional orders · matched starters
Game 3 · scheduled slateClear lean
AwayWashington Nationals28.9%
HomeDetroit Tigers71.1%
Mean score4.4 – 6.2Model total10.6One-run game28.6%
Detroit Tigers 71.1%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Preview the complete projection board
From our writers

Stories from the Sabrhood

Original stories crafted from our own research engine.

Artwork for Caleb Durbin is Digging Deep
Boston Red Sox | Hitting

Caleb Durbin is Digging Deep

There is a heat wave in Boston, centralized entirely in Caleb Durbin’s bat.

June 29, 2026Read story →
Artwork for Breaking Down Bello
Boston Red Sox | Pitching

Breaking Down Bello

A pitch-level look at Brayan Bello’s arsenal, results, and changing approach.

June 10, 2026Read story →
Artwork for A.J. Ewing Gets the Call
New York Mets | Prospects

A.J. Ewing Gets the Call

Can an early-season call-up change the direction of a club searching for a spark?

May 12, 2026Read story →
Open the full article archive
Around the league

Complete team reports

Taking you to every clubhouse around the league.

Rank Team Index Run gen. Pitching Risers Pen Recent riser
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 90.3 89.0 91.6 5 usable Kyle Tucker (Hitter)
2 Milwaukee Brewers 83.8 85.2 82.4 2 taxed Brice Turang (Hitter)
3 New York Yankees 76.4 68.3 84.5 0 taxed Ryan Yarbrough (Pitcher)
4 Boston Red Sox 73.9 60.2 87.6 1 rested Brayan Bello (Pitcher)
5 Tampa Bay Rays 72.3 59.5 85.2 3 taxed Victor Mesa Jr. (Hitter)
6 Pittsburgh Pirates 66.3 70.5 62.1 3 taxed Yohan Ramírez (Pitcher)
7 Atlanta Braves 64.2 54.3 74.1 0 rested Tyler Mahle (Pitcher)
8 Philadelphia Phillies 63.5 57.9 69.0 1 taxed Chase Shugart (Pitcher)
Open all 30 team reports

Research catered to you

Here to answer all of YOUR baseball questions.

Awards races, season leaders, matchup splits, daily historical notes, simulations, and reporting leads—organized around the questions baseball people actually ask.

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