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The SABRhood

MLB analysis for fans, journalists, and broadcasters.

Intelligence for the ’hood

See the game before the box score explains it.

The SABRhood combines pitch-level research, daily signals, simulation, history, and journalistic reporting for fans and broadcasters.

Open today’s headlines Explore today’s projections

Built for
FansUnderstand the game beyond the box score.
BroadcastersBuild game-day prep from one research desk.
JournalistsFind the next lead in the Trend Engine.
Headliners

Find headlines from different angles every day.

The engine hand picks new stories to keep things fresh.

Offensive race94.9

Yordan Alvarez

Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez is building one of baseball’s strongest offensive cases

OPS 1.034; race score 97.3.

Run prevention93.0

Jacob Misiorowski

Milwaukee Brewers

Jacob Misiorowski is limiting opponent production at an elite rate

OPS allowed 0.460; race score 94.9.

Team intelligence88.7

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers has a new league-wide reporting lead

Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 1st in run generation and 3rd in pitching performance, with a usable bullpen and 1 recent risers.

Milestone85.8

Freddie Freeman

LAD

Freddie Freeman reached 2,500 career hits

Career estimate 2,558.

Open the complete Story Engine
The Trend Engine

The winds have changed, where are these players heading now?

Our engine searches for the players with the most movement against there season averages.

Hitter change profile

Jac Caglianone

Kansas City Royals | LHB

66.6
Season PA453OPS0.816Est. wOBA0.347Samplestrong
Biggest changerun value per PA +4.25 z

Run value per PA is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 79th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS84th
0.816
Est. wOBA81st
0.347
Hard-hit rate99th
55.1%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Run value / PA+4.25 z
Recent 0.326 vs baseline -0.007
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Run value per PA is the largest recent shift: improving by 4.2 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 79th percentile. Recent sample: 50 PA; prior sample: 403 PA.
Hitter change profile

Bryce Harper

Philadelphia Phillies | LHB

63.4
Season PA535OPS0.871Est. wOBA0.372Samplestrong
Biggest changewalk rate +3.67 z

Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 99th percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS95th
0.871
Est. wOBA95th
0.372
Hard-hit rate73rd
44.8%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Walk rate+3.67 z
Recent 32.3% vs baseline 13.7%
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Walk rate is the largest recent shift: improving by 3.7 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 99th percentile. Recent sample: 62 PA; prior sample: 473 PA.
Pitcher change profile

John King

Miami Marlins | LHP

60.7
Season BF190OPS allowed0.630Est. wOBA allowed0.273Samplemoderate
Biggest changerun value allowed per PA -4.39 z

Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 81st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed76th
0.630
Est. wOBA allowed78th
0.273
Hard-hit rate allowed51st
37.7%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Run value allowed / PA-4.39 z
Recent 0.315 vs baseline -0.097
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Run value allowed per PA is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.4 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 81st percentile. Recent sample: 27 BF; prior sample: 163 BF.
Pitcher change profile

Seth Johnson

Athletics | RHP

60.3
Season BF106OPS allowed0.883Est. wOBA allowed0.384Samplemoderate
Biggest changehard-hit rate allowed -4.02 z

Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 1st percentile.

Season contextMLB percentile
OPS allowed2nd
0.883
Est. wOBA allowed1st
0.384
Hard-hit rate allowed1st
48.4%
0League midpoint100
What changedRecent vs earlier season
Hard-hit rate allowed-4.02 z
Recent 82.4% vs baseline 35.6%
Cooling50Improving
Broadcast read: Hard-hit rate allowed is the largest recent shift: declining by 4.0 standard deviations versus the MLB change pattern. Season level: 1st percentile. Recent sample: 26 BF; prior sample: 80 BF.
Open the full Player Change Engine
Career Path Engine

Where have careers like this gone next?

Games, age, offensive shape, and historical survival turn today’s player line into a range of career paths.

CIN · 121 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Sal Stewart

At 121 career games, Sal Stewart’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,503 more games. The closest current career shape is David Wright.

Legacy ProjectionNo Hall yet

The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.

Closest pathDavid WrightProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.274 / .340 / .468Expected HR pace20.8 per 600 PA
2027 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
2028 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
2029 estimate25 HR681 PA · .274 / .340 / .468Regular Role
ARI · 582 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Corbin Carroll

At 582 career games, Corbin Carroll’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,400 more games. The closest current career shape is Barry Bonds.

Legacy ProjectionHall bound?

This career shape frequently appears beside eventual Hall of Famers.

Closest pathBarry BondsProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.274 / .351 / .476Expected HR pace23.0 per 600 PA
2027 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
2028 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
2029 estimate26 HR703 PA · .274 / .351 / .476Regular Role
WSN · 194 career gamesStrong neighbor fit

Daylen Lile

At 194 career games, Daylen Lile’s historical neighbors point to a median 1,534 more games. The closest current career shape is Brett Lawrie.

Legacy ProjectionNo Hall yet

The comparable group has not usually finished on a Hall-level path.

Closest pathBrett LawrieProjected AVG / OBP / SLG.278 / .332 / .449Expected HR pace18.2 per 600 PA
2027 estimate20 HR657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
2028 estimate20 HR657 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
2029 estimate19 HR641 PA · .278 / .332 / .449Regular Role
Open the Career Path Engine
Simulation center preview

Probabilities with the uncertainty left in

The future daily board will report a lean, a score range, and the factors behind the number — never a naked percentage.

Game 1 · scheduled slateNear toss-up
AwayNew York Yankees50.3%
HomeBaltimore Orioles49.7%
Mean score4.2 – 4.2Model total8.4One-run game37.2%
New York Yankees 50.3%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Game 2 · scheduled slateNear toss-up
AwayDetroit Tigers48.8%
HomePittsburgh Pirates51.2%
Mean score4.8 – 4.9Model total9.7One-run game34.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates 51.2%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Game 3 · scheduled slateClear lean
AwaySan Francisco Giants35.8%
HomeCleveland Guardians64.2%
Mean score4.0 – 5.1Model total9.2One-run game33.0%
Cleveland Guardians 64.2%20,000 draws · confirmed orders · matched starters
Preview the complete projection board
From our writers

Stories from the Sabrhood

Original stories crafted from our own research engine.

Artwork for Caleb Durbin is Digging Deep
Boston Red Sox | Hitting

Caleb Durbin is Digging Deep

There is a heat wave in Boston, centralized entirely in Caleb Durbin’s bat.

June 29, 2026Read story →
Artwork for Breaking Down Bello
Boston Red Sox | Pitching

Breaking Down Bello

A pitch-level look at Brayan Bello’s arsenal, results, and changing approach.

June 10, 2026Read story →
Artwork for A.J. Ewing Gets the Call
New York Mets | Prospects

A.J. Ewing Gets the Call

Can an early-season call-up change the direction of a club searching for a spark?

May 12, 2026Read story →
Open the full article archive
Around the league

Complete team reports

Taking you to every clubhouse around the league.

Rank Team Index Run gen. Pitching Risers Pen Recent riser
1 Los Angeles Dodgers 88.7 90.5 86.9 1 usable Edgardo Henriquez (Pitcher)
2 Milwaukee Brewers 79.6 74.5 84.7 2 rested Trevor Megill (Pitcher)
3 Atlanta Braves 75.3 71.0 79.7 1 usable Tyler Mahle (Pitcher)
4 Boston Red Sox 70.6 53.8 87.4 3 rested Wilyer Abreu (Hitter)
5 New York Yankees 70.4 53.6 87.2 0 rested David Bednar (Pitcher)
6 Tampa Bay Rays 69.4 64.0 74.8 2 usable Casey Legumina (Pitcher)
7 Pittsburgh Pirates 64.9 74.1 55.7 0 usable Bubba Chandler (Pitcher)
8 Philadelphia Phillies 63.8 59.1 68.6 2 usable Bryson Stott (Hitter)
Open all 30 team reports

Research catered to you

Here to answer all of YOUR baseball questions.

Awards races, season leaders, matchup splits, daily historical notes, simulations, and reporting leads—organized around the questions baseball people actually ask.

Player intelligence Player Change Engine Career Path Engine Performance races Story Engine Matchup edges Team pulse History desk Daily newsletter Research archive Broadcast services Read the methodology

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